‘An Alarming State of Affairs’: Conflict on Iran Tightens India's LPG Availability.

The repercussions of a war being fought nearly 3,000km away are now being felt in India's households.

As aerial attacks on Iran hinder energy transports through the vital shipping lane, availability of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are shrinking across India, forcing restaurants to reduce offerings, close earlier and in some cases close completely.

Social media is filled with video clips showing queues outside fuel suppliers across Indian metros and localities as worries over fuel supplies spread. Businesses appear the hardest struck: the biggest crunch is in commercial eateries.

"The state of affairs is alarming. LPG simply is unavailable," says a spokesperson of the an industry group.

Most restaurants run either on industrial fuel canisters or direct gas lines, and the lack of supply are now being experienced across the country. "Many restaurants have shut down - some in Delhi, many in the southern states. People are adopting solid fuels and induction stoves to keep food preparation going."

Localized Effects

In Mumbai, accounts say up to a fifth of eateries are already operating at reduced capacity as business fuel stocks dry up. In the southern cities of Bengaluru and Chennai, some restaurants say their cylinder inventory have dwindled with little backup. "Our menu is reduced to coffee and no other dishes - it is nothing less than pathetic. Operations will be impacted," says a restaurant owner in Bengaluru.

Restaurant managers are rushing to adjust. "Food options are being cut, some are opening only for dinner and opening only for dinner," an industry representative says, adding that closures are varying as supplies wax and wane. "A number of eateries in Delhi were shut yesterday - some have resumed operations. It's a changing landscape."

Retailers report a surge in sales of electronic cooking appliances, with some saying they are selling out quickly.

Government Stance

Yet, the authorities maintains there is adequate supply.

India has more than 30 crore household consumers and officials say cylinders are being prioritized to households as conflict-related stress from the Middle East conflict impact energy markets.

Approximately a majority of India's LPG is imported, and about the vast majority of those imports pass through the critical waterway, the strategic bottleneck now largely blocked by the hostilities.

The oil ministry says that it instructed refineries to maximise LPG output for household consumption, lifting domestic production by about a quarter. Business-grade fuel is being allocated for essential sectors such as hospitals and educational institutions, while distribution will be "fair and transparent".

"Unnecessary hoarding and hoarding has been caused by rumors. The regular refill period for home fuel remains about two-and-a-half days," says a ministry representative.

Spreading Anxiety

Now the concern is extending beyond kitchens. On online networks, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a long, snaking queue of two-wheelers outside a petrol pump. "Concern is genuine," the caption reads.

According to reports from energy specialists, concerns about India's broader energy security may be overstated.

India imports the overwhelming majority of its crude oil. Around 50% of its petroleum shipments - about 2.5-2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the passage, largely from Gulf countries.

Even if petroleum transit through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the gap could be partly offset by higher imports of Russian petroleum, according to a sector expert.

Based on vessel tracking and expert analysis, incremental Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, lessening India's effective gap from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about a substantial volume of barrels a day.

"Around 25-30 million Russian oil barrels are currently floating on ships in the Indian Ocean and, with only two major Asian economies as major buyers, those barrels remain a ready fallback," an analyst noted.

Kitchen Fuel: The Primary Concern

The primary concern is cooking gas, experts note.

India consumes roughly a million barrels a day, but produces only 40-45% domestically, importing the rest - the vast majority through Hormuz.

Refineries can tweak operations to extract a bit more LPG, but even a limited rise would only increase domestic supply to about around half of demand, leaving the country largely dependent on imports.

In short: "Oil import vulnerability can be partially mitigated through varied suppliers. Refined product supply remains largely sufficient. LPG availability is the key factor to monitor in the coming weeks."

What may be intensifying the concern on the ground is not just tight supply but patchy deliveries - and the familiar spectre of hoarding.

An industry representative states opportunistic profiteering.

"Retailers are taking advantage of the situation - selling fuel on the black market and selling them at a high cost. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being accumulated and auctioned off."

For now, India's petroleum stocks may be protected by worldwide shipping. But in homes across the country, the more urgent issue is simple: how to get the next cylinder.