🔗 Share this article

Well. On one hand, the nation's long-running bid to organize the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

It campaigned for more than three years for the privilege to put on the world's biggest climate summit and green trade fair, which would have brought tens of thousands of people to the South Australian capital next November.

That's not happening. Rather, the conference known as the UN climate meeting is headed to the resort city of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Letdown and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had believed hosting the climate carnival could help speed up Australia's transition from being a carbon-based economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The process that led to failure has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other high-ranking officials truly desired the bid to be approved. The prime minister's language were ambiguous at best. It translated to stories in the local and global press saying the government was withdrawing.

This differed from the message being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the Australian climate change minister, Chris Bowen, had just stated the country was "fully committed to success".

Uncertain support is not a new issue for the hosting proposal. While Bowen championed it, other senior members of the government have only occasionally appeared to care.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been disengaged and at times outright opposed.

Evidence suggests Albanese has viewed UN climate conferences a important focus. He has missed one since taking office in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to get the bid over the line.

An Alternative View

That's one interpretation. But there is another way to consider it.

In the context the climate discussions this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the decision on Wednesday night may, perversely, have been the best result available.

Bowen set out on Wednesday an novel agreement that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the conference leader, organizer and effective event manager, and the Australian delegation – Bowen himself – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", wrangling almost all nations on the matters that the countries actually turn up for – the discussions on how to together combat the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a greater focus on the Pacific, including a lead-up event on an island nation.

Reasons for Doubt

There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. The two nations do not have a strong partnership. The details of the deal had not been completed at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could fall over before it gets started.

However, it might represent a way to salvage something useful from what appeared to be an approaching car crash for the international cooperation on global warming.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the international community as having been hellbent on creating disruption in the UN climate process. The system is designed to operate by consensus. Typically, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with less support either bow out voluntarily, or a compromise is quietly done to encourage them to exit the race.

Turkey plainly had weaker endorsement than the joint Pacific proposal to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 nations responsible for nominating next year's host had backed the southern pitch.

However, uniquely, Turkey refused to yield. The term "bastardry" has been used frequently in the past week, and not only by local commentators.

Geopolitical Context

Ankara's stubbornness can be read as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to confront the petroleum exporters that offered the Turks with certain protection.

President Erdoğan is seen as close to Vladimir Putin. Several nations feared a conference hindered from the top if his government led the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to host an underprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under UN rules if the deadlock wasn't resolved.

An Innovative Approach

A resolution was necessary. International frameworks is flawed and often disconcerting to observe, but global cooperation has demonstrably had an impact in the battle with climate change. This joint approach is a innovative solution that maintains progress when it is most crucial.

Despite reasonable concerns of the Australian government over its contradictory stance for expanding fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who participate in international meetings see Bowen as a positive influence in the talks. He has been requested to lead negotiation streams at each of the four conferences he has attended.

This matters. While certain critics have downplayed the importance of a "chief negotiator", specialists from research centers and experienced analysts at climate talks assert it is crucial to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a president holding the pen who can listen, build consensus and achieve an significant result. This occurred in Berlin in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. We saw the opposite in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the conference except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Remaining Concerns

Multiple unresolved issues. As an illustration, non-governmental organizations is essential at environmental summits. What, if anything, can the federal administration do to stop a restriction on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this arrangement looking like the best chance available to have a summit that may offer something for the Pacific region, Australia and the global community. This attempt is justified.