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Voting has commenced for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, though experts suggest the party stands little chance of joining the future coalition.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which previously pulled off a surprise first-place finish and established a multi-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

However, the far-right party's support has dipped since the previous election, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in June over disagreements concerning his controversial immigration plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a campaign dominated by topics such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with several experiencing significant losses.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the 27 parties participating in the vote – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – as many as 16 could enter parliament.

This high degree of division means that no single party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – typically composed of four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from government. But, opponents and experts argue that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is hard to predict and government negotiations may require several months, analysts suggest that after the most radical administration in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a inclusive alliance led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, began operations at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is anticipated soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will explore possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before taking office.